By Kathleen Cassedy

Delegates to the past four ATME annual conferences have likely noticed the increasing percentage of program content devoted to Internet marketing. The 2000 conference theme, “Fast Forward: Setting the Pace of Progress for a New Millennium,” focused specifically on the flurry of technological changes impacting the way travel products and experiences are marketed. A bevy of Who’s Who of dotcom companies provided daily keynote speeches. These included Terry Jones, president of Travelocity, Jerry Shereshewsky, senior marketing executive with Yahoo! and Mike McCadden, chief marketing officer of Priceline. Of the impressive lineup of speakers, some opinions differed, some overlapped, but all stressed the impact of the Internet in marketing and aspects that are yet to be discovered. This ambitious conference program was held at the Chicago Swissotel this past spring.

PERMISSION MARKETING
It’s not surprising that marketing executive Jerry Shereshewsky, who has the title Direct Yahoo! for the online search engine Yahoo!, is a big proponent of integrated online direct marketing, which he says is founded on the concept of “permission marketing.” Rather than advance the theme of the bestseller book about negotiating, Getting to Yes, by Roger Fisher and William Ury, Shereshewsky spoke about the importance of designing marketing strategies to get to “maybe” or even “no” from prospects, before striking it rich with “yes.”

“There are three conditions to getting a ‘yes,’” Shereshewsky says. “A person must be ready to buy what you are selling, willing to buy it from you, and able to complete the transaction.” Succinctly put, they must be ready, willing and able. If one of those conditions is missing, the transaction will not occur. Rather than hear a “yes” or “no,” however, marketers typically get a “no response.”

“The question is: Does ‘no response’ mean no?” Shereshewsky asks. With conventional media-television, radio, print, etc.-a marketer cannot afford to find out if “no response” means “no.” But the Internet allows marketers to continue the dialog at virtually no cost. Shereshewsky calls it “Net-onomics 101.” In traditional marketing, reach and frequency are related and have a cost. Unless it is by way of the Internet, companies cannot afford as much frequency as they would like.

Advertising on the Internet does not supplant content (as it does on television), it coexists with content. As a medium, the Internet is not relaxing like watching television, it is a “lean forward” medium, Shereshewsky says, where people come with a high degree of purpose, such as to check their e-mail or stock prices. If, at some point, a person online discovers your site or clicks on your advertisement and agrees to provide his or her name and e-mail address to access more of your message, than you have created a relationship with someone with whom you may continue the dialog virtually forever and for nothing, he says. Unless they take back their permission, he adds.
Shereshewsky touted the Net’s ability to record sequence, allowing a business to know when someone visited its site. With this information, marketers can send e-mail messages that remind visitors about their products or services with promotions or other offers consumers are likely to be interested in, based on previous online inquiries or purchases. “The Internet is about the ability to slowly, gradually move a person from where they were to where you want them to be,” Shereshewsky explains. “Persuasion is about permission. You cannot persuade someone unless you have their overt and willing permission to be persuaded.” Because of the Internet’s unique capability as a medium, it should not be used as just another “traditional” medium. “If you know how to harness it, it will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams,” he exclaims.

YOU MUST DATE
Just as people typically do not marry until after they have been dating, marketers must follow the rules of permission before making that final transaction. Permission is an asset; it has value. “I work for a company that values permission and knows what it is worth. We have permission from 150 million people, and extraordinary levels of permission from about 125 million of them,” Shereshewsky says. These online visitors have registered with Yahoo! and provided personal information. “We guard that permission very carefully...It is the mother asset of our company,” he reveals.

Permission cannot be bought or sold, like a list of names. “You must ask for it, and they have to give it to you. Permission can be revoked at any time. Most importantly, permission is selfish,” Shereshewsky explains. “If customers do not see their obvious and overt self interest, they will not do what you have asked them to do. They know what their self interest is, do you? And have you shown it to them?” Because the Net is different, marketers must think differently, and act differently. “Build programs to get the greatest amount of ‘maybe’ at the lowest possible cost, in the shortest amount of time, and you will win big time,” Shereshewsky exhorts.

“Permission is the major asset. Learn how to get it, and learn how to maximize it over time.”

CONSUMER ATTITUDES
“The way lifestyle has changed in this country has profoundly impacted the way people think about using travel services,” according to Peter Yesawich, president and CEO of Yesawich, Pepperdine & Brown, a marketing, advertising and public relations agency. YPB is affiliated with Yankelovich Partners, with whom it co-sponsors the National Travel Monitor from which Yesawich presented findings from the 1999 survey.

Consumer confidence is hovering at unprecedented levels. Because seven out of 10 Americans agree that they are better off now than they were eight years ago, and the same ratio of Americans would welcome more novelty and change in their lives, Yesawich suggests that consumer sentiment is beginning to rewrite the rules of travel marketing, especially for leisure travel. Seventy percent of Americans say they would like to plan a vacation to someplace they have never been. “That percentage has never been as high,” Yesawich says. This means that a family could have a wonderful vacation at a resort, but would not plan to come back. For marketers, “The single greatest challenge in travel marketing is generating ‘try.’”

Consumers are also saying they are bored; in fact, four out of 10 say they are bored with the Internet. Yet they say they feel better off, Yesawich notes. “This is somewhat of a paradox, if consumers feel things are good, then why don’t they feel that way?” he asks. Over the new few years, shifting dynamics, which are redefining the way people feel about lifestyle, will influence the travel business.

CONSUMERS VALUE SIMPLICITY
Because people feel life is too complicated, they want to find ways to simplify their lives. Convenience has become a premium for some people, it they can pay one price for goods and services, including travel, they increasingly will do so, Yesawich says. Surveys show that people feel that bundled travel is more convenient and provides better value. For instance, six out of 10 consumers agree with the statement that if a hotel does not provide breakfast with the room, it is not competitive.

Fifty percent of Americans feel they do not have enough time. Whether it is the long commute time or more work, what was once a forty-hour work week has stretched to 50 hours for many people. Sixty percent feel they don’t have enough vacation time. They are burdened with “time poverty,” Yesawich says. Travel marketers can provide ways to simplify and expedite travel arrangements. For example, customers would appreciate the use of technology that coordinates their travel arrangements and schedules holiday activities, such as tee time and spa visits, before arrival.

TIME IS CURRENCY
“Time is the new currency of greatest value, especially as people earn more [income],” Yesawich notes. Rather than receive bonuses in the form of monetary compensation, people often would prefer more leisure time, especially if they are among the Generation X, i.e., people thirty-five years or younger. Customers’ consumption patterns are driven by shifts in attitude. How can these evolving attitudes work into a marketer’s strategy? The long two or three-week vacation has almost become an anachronism. Only 23 percent of Americans took a vacation of five contiguous nights in 1999. Thirty-one percent took vacations of four or fewer nights which included a Saturday night. Yesawich suggests that suppliers provide marketing programs for Sunday through Thursday, and Thursday through Sunday.

He divides the population into audiences based on their attitudes and lifestyle. One set of consumers is the me dot generation. This group uses technology in every realm of consumption. They share three major values: autonomy, diversity and enjoyment.

‘VIGILANTE’ CONSUMER
Ninety percent of Americans agree with the statement, “It’s important for me to feel in charge of my life.” Yesawich describes consumers of the new millennium as vigilantes, who exercise “strategic control,” a term coined to describe the negotiating process that consumers have developed. They also agree with the statement, “Sometimes you have to compromise your principles.” Although it is mathematically impossible, two-thirds of Americans believe they are smarter than other people. And seventy percent believe they can figure things out on their own. This last sentiment could affect distributors.

These last four sentiments translate into unprecedented consumer activism, Yesawich says. “The activist consumer has access to the ultimate weapon in commerce: the Internet,” he says. As consumers become more affluent, they also become more aggressive in seeking the best price, he notes. Two-thirds of Americans believe that the Internet is a tool which gives them better control, although not that high of a percentage of Americans are currently logging on, he says. “We are about to enter the era of the end of consumer dependence on suppliers....Control is shifting away from the supplier to the buyer. That has never happened before,” Yesawich says. This means that the supplier does not determine what their offer is worth, the consumer does.

Yesawich says that because of these consumer attitude trends, brand clarity is essential in the travel marketplace. “Brand loyalty is a fragile commodity when 8 out of 10 consumers say they would look at alternatives if they could get a better price,” he notes. Because consumers favor a cluster of brands, they can easily choose a substitute if a price is better or a favored brand is unavailable.
“In 1994, two thirds of consumers said it was risky to buy a brand with which they were unfamiliar, today only half say that. This means that the enlightened and empowered consumer who practices strategic control is prepared to accept a little more risk,” Yesawich says. If ever a business was tailormade for the new paradigm in marketing, it is the travel industry. “Think about the wonderful applications of technology that allow customers to build the experiences they seek,” he says.

TECH-KNOWS & KNOW-NOTS
Yesawich divides travelers into two groups based on their attitudes and lifestyle. “Tech Knows” spend more time online and are the first to try technology to improve their lives professionally and personally. “Know Nots” are adverse to the use of technology, and fewer of them “want to satisfy their hunger for new experiences,” he says. Because Tech Knows have a higher incidence of travel, they are the ones with whom marketers want to target. Yesawich pointed out that even with all the buzz regarding the Internet, television, as an advertising medium, is still the gold standard to reach most American households. However, the number of Internet users is increasing, and so is their online time. Are people logging on to get information and plan their travel, or to make purchases? he asks. Online consumers say they are concerned about two things: the complexity of the process and security regarding credit card information. In 1999, the typical American consumed 1,100 hours of broadcast time and 30 hours online. “What will happen when those Internet hours rise to 40 and 50? “Consumers still consume the old fashion way,” Yesawich points out. “Our sense is that they will use Internet technology in a different fashion than most of us believe.”

THE ELECTRONIC BAZAAR
One-third of leisure travelers in 1999 logged on to plan some type of travel experience, says Yesawich, and one-fifth logged on to attempt a transaction. The number of leisure travelers has reached parity with business travelers who use the Internet for travel purposes. Just over one third of Americans believe they can receive the best price from a travel agency. Yesawich believes this is because of the comfort associated with personal interaction. Thirty percent of Americans believe that they can get the best price from online services and suppliers. Already the Internet is increasingly used as a clearinghouse for unsold or distressed inventory, notes Yesawich, who predicts that as security issues-real or perceived-are resolved, “we will enter the age of the electronic bazaar where there is quite a bit of comparison shopping.” Yesawich urged marketers to consider that about 10 percent of consumers who log on have never visited an auction or name your own price site, but forty percent say “it’s a neat idea.”

PRICELINE.COM
Mike McCadden, chief marketing officer of Priceline.com, noted that marketing is greatly different than it was five or even two years ago because marketers today know their customers so much better. Priceline recently surveyed consumers to determine where they plan to spend their discretionary income over the next 12 months. He was surprised by some of the results, thinking a computer would be higher on the list. Consumers chose a meal in a restaurant first, followed by new clothes, a movie, and then a stay at a hotel. McCadden pointed out that the price for dinner-for-two at a restaurant in many cities is about the same price as a hotel night.

He noted that attaining status is a motivator of discretionary spending, and how brand conscious many consumers have become, even many pre-teens know the brand of their “sneakers.”

FAVORED WEB SITES
Of 3.6 million web sites—and 4,400 are added each day—80 percent of web traffic goes to just 15,000 sites, McCadden points out. “That’s less than 1 percent of the total number of sites....We believe that consumers in 1999 spent 19 percent more time at their favorite sites than in 1998. While they were at these sites, they looked at 25 percent more pages.” Consumers are taking time and energy to explore the web, but over time they become loyal to these favored sites. Although marketers today have so much more customer information collected on databases, when you consider the immense clutter of advertising, McCadden believes it is becoming harder to reach peoples. Consumers also have become more brand savvy at an earlier age. “What this has done is made it more difficult to cut through,” he says.

EVOLVING MIX
As a brand, Priceline regularly communicates to customers. “We need to reach a broad range of consumers, and we need to do it across multiple vehicles,” McCadden says. The Priceline brand was built on radio for its first two years. But since Priceline introduced itself to the world by way of spokesman, William Shatner of Star Trek fame (Captain Kirk), the company’s marketing plan has evolved to a layered marketing scheme, which includes television, print, e-mail, and direct mail. “We’re talking about a gigantic mix,” McCadden says. “In my mind, no matter what industry, what product, what brand or dotcom company, the marketing mix must evolve... There is tremendous velocity on the consumer side, and the challenge for all marketers is to keep up with that.”

TRAVELOCITY
“Travel is the Number 1 shop category on the web,” notes Terry Jones, Travelocity president. “We sold $500 million of travel on Travelocity in the first quarter, so we’re on the road to becoming a $2 billion to $2.5 billion company by year end. The number of people buying from us is truly staggering.” The company has 19 million members logged on its database. Travelocity sold over $21 million of advertising last year. “We are the largest e-commerce site that takes advertising, with eight million unique visitors a month. In comparison, the largest circulation of a travel magazine is about a million, and the New York Times has about a million and one half, he notes. After Amazon and E-Bay, Travelocity is the largest e-commerce site, and the ninth largest U.S. travel agency.

The basis of competition is different on the Internet than in the physical world because the electronic world has no respect for location or geography, Jones says. Competition is only an eighth of a second a way. “This is very important because 60 percent of satisfied online users have not developed an online retailer preference yet. So loyalty is now being built,” he notes. The online world also shows no respect for longevity or scale, Jones says. “It’s what I call the victory of the Lilliputians. New models are starting up and challenging the dotcom and the brick and mortar companies.
The Internet is not like television, where advertising interrupts the content. On the Internet, people are searching for something, a company has to be a beacon to attract them, and show them what it has. “Very few people are surfing, most people are searching for something,” Jones notes. Consumers use e-commerce for its efficiency and convenience, rather than to save money, although they want good value, he says. Surveys show price as Number 4 or 5 as a motivator, he says.
A key point of the Internet is that product, brand, and experience happen simultaneously. “This means that marketing and information technology departments must work closely, and these are not groups that play well together traditionally,” he says.

MARKET SHIFTS TO THE BUYERS
The market balance is also shifting to the buyer. Because online prices are readily available, a company cannot maintain geographically different prices, as they do in the brick and mortar world. Also the online audience shares reviews and travel information about experiences and products. The business model is changing, and distribution is becoming more complicated, Jones says. Because consumers will be able to interact with new electronic devices, such as interactive television, telephones, faxes, and with the travel agent or supplier directly over the web, a whole new “web” of relationships are now being formed, Jones says. “As marketers we have to be more segmented in terms of how we reach out to people, and micro-market because channels are more complicated. Priceline, for example, is a new model of distribution More companies are forming consortiums to market themselves better.”

E-commerce is creating a fundamental shift in the economy, which is influencing the market going forward. Currently, word-of-mouth advertising is the Number 1 way in which people learn about Internet sites, and it spreads nationally, given the accessibility of sites, Jones notes. Travelocity’s competition is the telephone, so the company aims at being better than the phone by creating a dialog with its customers. Travelocity sends hundreds of thousands of e-mails every month to members who want to watch a particular route. “Anytime a fare goes down, we send an e-mail, they click on, and can make a purchase instantly,” Jones explains.

PROVIDING CHOICES
The company also offers amenities more easily on the Internet, such as seat maps. Consumers can access online information about available hotel rooms, their rates, tours of the hotels, and reviews from other travelers. In the physical world, you would need several books and a telephone to do this, Jones notes. Now customers can provide zip codes of where they are going, and travel specifications, and Travelocity can offer them choices in air and accommodations. “Since we started doing that plotting, our business is up dramatically,” Jones says. The company also provides customers with information on how to achieve the lowest fare, i.e., when it is offered and the day to travel. It also provides alternative destinations that offer similar characteristics to a traveler’s specifications. For example, Travelocity can suggest to a customer who is planning a ski trip to Denver to consider Reno, for which there is a cheaper air fare, and more snow at the destination. Customers can also provide their budgets for vacations, and Travelocity can match destination choices to those budgets. Travelocity can also refer customers to travel consultant specialists with whom the company has partnered.

Travelocity does both online and offline marketing. Online portals receive the best placement, but Travelocity also places ads at airports, and on the radio and cable television. With broadband connections, Travelocity will be able to provide customers with selections from 7,000 hours of travel videos it acquired when it purchased Preview Travel.

ULTIMATE MARKETING MEDIUM
When marketers combine great marketing with key data on the Internet, it becomes the ultimate direct marketing medium, Jones says. When compared to traditional direct marketing, which provides customers with catalogs or brochures to pique their interest and stimulate them to make purchases, the Internet can provide the stimulation, and then customers can select and purchase without ever leaving the medium.

Jones believes Travelocity’s database containing 19 million members may be the largest in the world. “We know addresses, travel preferences, shopping habits, and demographics. I know everyone that looked at Las Vegas yesterday,” he reveals. The company uses that data in aggressive e-mail campaigns—with permission from the members—for private sales, for targeted ads, for upselling, for newsletters, and for direct mail. Jones stresses the importance of having permission to talk to customers. “Permission is hard to obtain, and easy to squander,” he says. “You need to nurture and husband it.”

Travelocity also addresses customers’ concerns about privacy by practicing a strong privacy policy, which is displayed at the front of its site saying that the company will not sell its data. “We would be stupid to sell our data, when we can make more money leveraging it,” Jones says.

As a marketing medium, the Internet can be extremely targeted, and also used for upselling. Smart online companies often send followup e-mails a few weeks after purchases or inquiries to suggest similar products or services. Travelocity’s upsell suggestions are extremely targeted and database driven. “We’re not yet in a world of totally customized recommendations, but, standby, that’s exactly where we’re going,” Jones says.

INTERNET & DATABASE
“There has never been a more powerful tool in your [marketing] arsenal than the Internet. It is a medium that has broad application across the entire spectrum of the sales marketing process. Among the most important is how Internet technology can be integrated with your database to manage prospect and customer relationships,” espouses Madigan Pratt, executive vice president and managing director of Madigan Pratt & Associates.

Pratt, who has championed the concept of integrated marketing at the past several ATME conferences, explained how the traditional marketing model has been recreated to facilitate and leverage new technology.

Marketers who simply use the Internet as another marketing tool, need to revise their entire approach to marketing, Pratt exhorts. The paradigm shift is more than about change, it requires a totally different way of thinking, which requires CEOs, presidents, and senior marketers to adapt, he says.

The traditional marketing communications model had television occupying the all-important center with other tools such as public relations, print, radio, direct mail and even the Internet as its spokes.
Forward thinking marketers and advances in database technology, with its ability to provide mass personalization and customized product offerings, have replaced television at the wheel’s hub.
Integrated marketing, which developed in the late 1980s, is about data driven one-to-one marketing and, perhaps most importantly, accountability. It is much more than simply having the same tag line in all your communications.

Armed with the customer knowledge provided by the database, marketers can now provide products people want to buy, when they want to buy them. To do so requires a total change, Pratt explains. It requires the right strategic approach to integrating the Internet into the marketing equation and in the process creates the new, integrated marketing communications model.

Early on the Internet was used as electronic collateral, a web brochure, added to the marketing mix. You still hear some marketers say the Internet is just another medium that hasn’t produce the results expected, he says. “These people don’t want to shift their thinking. They don’t get how it all fits together...The Internet should be behind all your communications — the magazine, the direct marketing, the telemarketing, collateral, public relations-with the database feeding into the Internet,” Pratt explains.

The sales process is designed to turn prospects into customers, then deepen the relationship to keep them as loyal customers, Pratt says. “Only one medium works along the entire [marketing] continuum. That is the Internet, which has global reach, it’s there 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and continually feeds the database. This in turn allows for more cost efficient electronic, permission-based marketing in the future.

The flexibility of the Internet is astonishing. You can use it for trade promotions, consumer promotions, pricing, and advertising,” Pratt points out. “Your Internet strategy should therefore be perfectly aligned [with your marketing strategy].

If the Internet is viewed as only one communication tool instead of your communications backbone, then it will not produce the results you want. You are not using the power of the Internet and the available technology, and you are not going to achieve competitive advantage over companies that have placed the Internet along with the database at the center of their strategies,” Pratt says.
“Look at the new integrated marketing communications model. Realign your priorities. Get with the program. Give the Internet its due. Enjoy the results!”

PRESIDENTS PANEL
A panel of company presidents representing eight travel segments spoke about their marketplace and marketing strategies and why and how they are likely to evolve over the next few years.
Phil Calian, president of American Classic Voyages, notes that his company is building a vessel designed to capture the consumer. He knows that 7 million people visitor Hawaii annually, but only 1 percent cruise. His company intends to reach prospective customers through the Internet. Company presidents spoke about customers defining the price. For car rental companies, says Mike Going, president of Alamo, their main customers are their business partners who bring them the “behind the wheel” customers. Web entrepreneurs are increasingly providing a bigger piece of the business, he notes. Since rental car companies have become public companies, they must consider their new constituent-the shareholder. In this new consolidated environment, car rental companies are sharing information about their markets.

AIRLINE INDUSTRY CHANGES
The airline industry was represented on the panel by William Compton, president and CEO of Trans World Airlines, who notes that the industry has most recently been influenced by three major changes in the marketplace. Both international and domestic alliances are providing easier air travel arrangements for customers who are not offered nonstop routes that match their itineraries. The alliance strategy is aimed at attracting their competitors’ customers.

The introduction of the regional jet, which has replaced the turboprop plane, has allowed airline companies to bypass their competitors’ hub airports to fly to airports where their own jets have slots. Called “hub poaching,” it allows airline companies to access customers they could not geographically reach before.

The third area, which is impacting airlines are the “amenities” airlines are beginning to offer customers, called customization, such as more leg room by removing some rows of seats. While some customers may consider this necessary to accommodate the length of a person’s top leg when sitting, Compton notes that customers do not want to pay for the additional space, even though airline fares are lower than they have ever been in decades.

VACATION PACKAGES
Cheryl van Horn, president of Vacations by Globetrotters, points out that as companies acquire each other, they must consider how to keep the business of the brands that are bought, and then to increase the business of all the consolidated companies. She sees the challenge of the Internet as an art, more than a science, and is concerned about the cost of marketing on the Internet, when she knows that people will not book tour products online in the short run. For her business, she currently views the Internet as a promotional tool. Her company’s focus is supporting its distributors, the travel agencies, and keeping them strong.

Because the packaged tour product is more complex and expensive than other travel products, such as transportation or accommodations, she believes that customers prefer to purchase tours from agents. Van Horn also notes that technical people often overlook the difference between a transaction and an experience on the Internet. Globetrotters’ customers are having an experience-expending valuable time, incremental income, and pleasure-in booking their trips. “It’s the whole experience that we have to recognize when we’re booking leisure and vacation travel, especially on the Internet,” she says.

HOTELS AND DISTRIBUTION
Scott Miller, president of Hyatt Hotels, notes that control of the company’s distribution is a main concern as new intermediaries in the marketplace are introduced that would come between the hotel company and its clients. While many distribution changes can be beneficial, Miller says that Hyatt intends to ensure that it controls the sale of its branded product, which it believes is different than other deluxe hotel companies, not just another high-end commodity. He notes that the hotel business structure is changing, so that many traditional marketing and distribution channels are also becoming booking engines. Also within the hotel’s business operations, the separate functions of marketing and advertising versus sales and reservations are coming together, as the company moves to database-driven marketing programs that incorporate both sales and reservation propositions over the Internet.

In the convention center business, James Reilly, CEO of the Chicago Convention and Tourism Bureau, notes that large convention centers, such as Chicago’s McCormick Place, are expanding their structures to accommodate more mid-size and smaller conferences shows rather than mega shows. He notes that as the buyer market consolidates, CVBs are working for the first time with helping large shows grow their attendance, which may involve international marketing. This is because consolidation has created fewer hardware retailers, although sales are just as high and growing.

On the leisure side of marketing, some CVBs are working to package the city experience, so that a visitor does not have to make separate reservations for a hotel, a rental car, a theater ticket or other entertainment, or at a restaurant, but could do it all from one central point, whether it is the CVB’s web site or information center. The destination which can accomplish this “one-stop” approach first will win over other destinations, Reilly says. Andrew McKee, founder of Vacation.com, a nationwide network of more than 9,800 travel agencies, composed of more than 36,000 agents, specializing in leisure travel, believes that travel agencies who learn how to market and sell online will prosper. His company, which provides agencies with the electronic tools to build an online presence, expects to add 8,000 to 9,000 travel agency web sites over the next two years.

REVENGE OF THE TRAVEL AGENT
McKee says travel agents have already developed relationships with customers and received permission marketing, what they lacked was the same technology that online mega-travel agencies, like Expedia and Travelocity, have. He believes that once agencies are “webified,” the industry will see the “revenge of the travel agent,” referring to predictions that say the Internet will put many agencies out of business.

Most segments are selling between 1 percent and 15 percent of total revenue on the Internet, but all presidents believed this percentage would grow for their companies-some to as high as 30 percent by 2002.